us inflation hit 3.3% in march, its highest in nearly two years, with gas prices rising over 21% in a single month after iran disrupted oil supplies through the strait of hormuz. amazon, ups, and fedex are already passing higher fuel costs on to businesses and shoppers, so expect prices to creep up on everyday stuff soon.

a tentative ceasefire between the us and iran sent stock markets up and oil prices down last week, but the physical blockade of the strait of hormuz is reportedly still in place, which means the relief could be short-lived. traders are cautiously hopeful, but nobody is declaring the crisis over just yet.

the imf and world bank are holding their big annual spring meetings in washington this week, and the mood going in is grim: the fund will publish updated growth forecasts tomorrow and has already signalled it will cut them across the board because of the middle east war. it had actually been planning to upgrade its outlook before the conflict started.